之所以会这么认为，是因为手里已经有了比较确切的官方消息，是来自Google官方博客上的一篇博文，因为blogspot已经和Google site、Google picasa一样被墙了，所以从别的地方找来原文（http://googleblog.blogspot.com/2010/01/new-approach-to-china.html），贴到此处：

Like many other well-known organizations, we face cyber attacks of varying degrees on a regular basis. In mid-December, we detected a highly sophisticated and targeted attack on our corporate infrastructure originating from China that resulted in the theft of intellectual property from Google. However, it soon became clear that what at first appeared to be solely a security incident--albeit a significant one--was something quite different.

First, this attack was not just on Google. As part of our investigation we have discovered that at least twenty other large companies from a wide range of businesses--including the Internet, finance, technology, media and chemical sectors--have been similarly targeted. We are currently in the process of notifying those companies, and we are also working with the relevant U.S. authorities.

Second, we have evidence to suggest that a primary goal of the attackers was accessing the Gmail accounts of Chinese human rights activists. Based on our investigation to date we believe their attack did not achieve that objective. Only two Gmail accounts appear to have been accessed, and that activity was limited to account information (such as the date the account was created) and subject line, rather than the content of emails themselves.

Third, as part of this investigation but independent of the attack on Google, we have discovered that the accounts of dozens of U.S.-, China- and Europe-based Gmail users who are advocates of human rights in China appear to have been routinely accessed by third parties. These accounts have not been accessed through any security breach at Google, but most likely via phishing scams or malware placed on the users' computers.

We have already used information gained from this attack to make infrastructure and architectural improvements that enhance security for Google and for our users. In terms of individual users, we would advise people to deploy reputable anti-virus and anti-spyware programs on their computers, to install patches for their operating systems and to update their web browsers. Always be cautious when clicking on links appearing in instant messages and emails, or when asked to share personal information like passwords online. You can read more here about our cyber-security recommendations. People wanting to learn more about these kinds of attacks can read this U.S. government report (PDF), Nart Villeneuve's blog and this presentation on the GhostNet spying incident.

We have taken the unusual step of sharing information about these attacks with a broad audience not just because of the security and human rights implications of what we have unearthed, but also because this information goes to the heart of a much bigger global debate about freedom of speech. In the last two decades, China's economic reform programs and its citizens' entrepreneurial flair have lifted hundreds of millions of Chinese people out of poverty. Indeed, this great nation is at the heart of much economic progress and development in the world today.

We launched Google.cn in January 2006 in the belief that the benefits of increased access to information for people in China and a more open Internet outweighed our discomfort in agreeing to censor some results. At the time we made clear that "we will carefully monitor conditions in China, including new laws and other restrictions on our services. If we determine that we are unable to achieve the objectives outlined we will not hesitate to reconsider our approach to China."

These attacks and the surveillance they have uncovered--combined with the attempts over the past year to further limit free speech on the web--have led us to conclude that we should review the feasibility of our business operations in China. We have decided we are no longer willing to continue censoring our results on Google.cn, and so over the next few weeks we will be discussing with the Chinese government the basis on which we could operate an unfiltered search engine within the law, if at all. We recognize that this may well mean having to shut down Google.cn, and potentially our offices in China.

The decision to review our business operations in China has been incredibly hard, and we know that it will have potentially far-reaching consequences. We want to make clear that this move was driven by our executives in the United States, without the knowledge or involvement of our employees in China who have worked incredibly hard to make Google.cn the success it is today. We are committed to working responsibly to resolve the very difficult issues raised.

Posted by David Drummond, SVP, Corporate Development and Chief Legal Officer。

　　相信在一五一十上还有很多和我一样，学英语学的不大好的，那就转贴来自谷奥针对于此的一篇文章（http://www.google.org.cn/posts/google-may-end-its-operations-in-chia.html）：

　　Google在自己的博客发表声明，他们在去年12月中期发现有很多来自中国大陆的有针对性的攻击，导致知识产权被盗。

　　首先，攻击并不是只针对Google，至少还有另外20家来自各行各业的公司都受到了攻击，包括互联网、金融、科技、媒体和化工等等行业，Google也提醒了这些公司，并与美国当局进行合作。

　　其次，Google有足够的证据证明这些攻击者的目标是人（要和谐）权活动者的Gmail帐户，根据Google的调查攻击者最后还是没有获得他们想要的东西。只有两个Gmail帐户被攻陷，但只取得了有限的数据（比如帐户创建日期）和邮件的主题，而邮件内容都没有泄露。

　　第三，作为这次调查的一部分，Google发现大量在中国致力于人（还是要和谐）权事业的美国、中国和欧洲的Gmail用户都经常受到攻击，在Google的保护下都完好无损，但也许有用户在收到钓鱼邮件和恶意邮件后电脑会中毒。

　　Google再次提到自己在2006年发布google.cn是为了让更多中国人民可以享受到Google的服务，Google也可以容忍一定程度的审查。2006年Google曾经提到说他们会仔细监视中国大陆的情况，包括新的法律和对Google服务的限制，如果Google认为无法达到他们认为的底线，那么会重新考虑进入中国的问题。

　　关键的来了：Google今天决定不想再继续审查google.cn的搜索结果，接下来几周里他们将与中国政府讨论在法律框架下做一个不过滤不审查的搜索引擎！如果不能做到这一点的话，Google认为这就意味着他们要关闭google.cn和在中国大陆的办公室。

　　这个决定确实很难下，但Google认为这样做的潜在意义非常重大，这完全是美国总部的考虑，而跟中国大陆的谷歌中国员工没有任何关系，他们已经非常努力的在做好足够成功的google.cn了。

　　我的个人看法：就上面的粗体字部分来看，我几乎可以确认，商谈不会有任何结果，几周后Google就会离开贵国了。再见，谷歌！

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　　我只想说，我们有权利看我们想看的东西，说我们想说的话，这是上天给我们的权利，没有任何人可以去剥夺他人的这种权利。

　　今天，国新办说“将以更加开放姿态向世界传播中国声音”，而群众的要求则是“请以更加开放姿态向中国传播世界声音”